But, of Course, SOPA

Written in the name of internet freedom.

So what's the dig on SOPA? Well, if you don't know what it is, then read this first (quick, before SOPA kills Wikipedia!) Done? Great. Now what I'd like to say is that I don't support SOPA.

Firstly, I don't think that file sharing constitutes a copyright infringement. Simple analogy: if I buy a Sherlock Holmes 2 DVD then watch it with my family and friend, or buy a Harry Potter book then lend it to my neighbors, do I infringe the copyright? The answer is a simple no. File sharers never acknowledge that the music or movie that they share as their intellectual property. They also share it for free, which means that they never profiteer over the file.

Secondly, although I don't think that online piracy doesn't create any harms whatsoever, the claim that it causes $58 million dollar is simply bogus and misleading. How about the claim that it damages entertainment industries? Well, take a look at this:


(Courtesy of Techdirt.)

It turns out that the US entertainment industries are just fine. In fact, they thrive amidst the collapse of global economy. How about the claim that it causes 19 millions of jobs losses? Nope. As of 2010, the number of workers in US entertainment industries is nowhere near 19 millions, it is only 374,000. File sharing also will not hurt the US economy as a whole. You might remember the broken windows fallacy: the money that is not spent for buying original CD will be spent for buying other goods or services.

Aside from that, as you can ponder, SOPA will not affect that much regarding people's preferences. Even before SOPA, there are so many people who still choose to watch movies in cinemas and buy original CDs/DVDs or published books despite there are free mp3s, movie videos, and e-books on the internet. One of the reason maybe because there's a physical form of it that can serve as a collectible item. On the other hand, people who download from internet will not simply switch into buying original CDs/DVDs/published books due to SOPA. Maybe there is no access to buy its original form (for instance in China) or the cinemas simply suck for not playing some movies (like here in Indonesia.) The fact that Harry Potter books' sales could break the world record even though there were free e-book versions of them serves as an example.

Another reason the entertainment industries can survive is that because of they already are recapturing much of that revenue through “complementary” purchases. For a movie maker, they can sell licensed merchandises. For a musician, instead of selling recorded albums, they switch the trend into selling live concerts and ring back tones, which, as I observe, remain lucrative businesses. As what is analyzed by Oberholzer-Gee in his paper, recording industry numbers show large increases in concert revenues corresponding to the drop in recorded music sales.

File sharing gives benefit for indie artists to be heard. Arctic Monkeys and Secondhand Serenade owe their success to file sharing. On the other hand, established artists like Trent Reznor (Nine Inch Nails) on his album "Ghost I-IV" and Radiohead on their album "In Rainbows" were still able to book millions of dollars in profit despite letting people to buy their songs for whatever price they wanted to and many of them downloaded the albums for free.

After all, SOPA will not stop file sharing, anyway. You may recall how in 2005 US Supreme Court's "Grokster" decision that ruled that file sharing networks could be held liable for copyright infringement if they take "affirmative steps" to encourage infringement, went backlash as peer-to-peer (P2P) sharing flourished after the decision. Moreover, the punishment is horribly unjust. You can get 5 years in punishment for uploading a Michael Jackson's song. That is one year longer than the sentence for a doctor who apparently killed him.

Surprised?

An Inquiry of Gold Fuss

This is quite wonkish. With all the fuss to invest and hold in gold (even the talks in my office and my diploma 3 taxation class of 2008 Facebook group, for Christ’s sakes), I think I have to set things straight.

First of all, gold is not a good choice of investment (albeit good for hedging, but that’s another story.) As what Warren Buffet also noted, with the world’s 170,000 metric tons of total supply of gold valuated at approximately $9.6 trillion, choosing to invest to this asset that isn’t capable of producing anything (unlike investing in companies that can give you dividends or interest revenues, or managing a farmland that can produce commodities) is not wise. Secondly, despite its limited supply, its price can be shaken up by market condition of other financial products like bonds, stocks, etc. Its volatility can be shown during 1980. The gold price went from $560 per ounce to $850 over three short weeks in January 1980. After that gold became much less precious as it hit back to below $600 and plunged to bearish market. It never crossed $850 and above again until January 2008

So what drives the hike of gold price currently? We don’t know for sure. Perhaps Krugman was right that the increase of gold price is driven by deflation and/or the falling of expected return of other investments, following the Hotelling rule. Perhaps he was wrong as there is no sign of deflation (for instance, average global inflation rate is projected to reach 3.4% in 2012 and bond rates of PIIGS are high,) and this chart shows (courtesy of Lior Cohen) that the spike in gold price (at least in US) came after the recent two quantitative easing plans from The Fed in 2008 (QE1) and 2010 (QE2.)





That means, instead of being driven by deflation, it’s driven by inflation expectation or depreciation of dollar against other currencies. And it is exacerbated by the negative elasticity of gold price: because of the expensive cost of gold mining, when the gold price rises in the short run, the miners tend to mine the poorer quality veins of gold first in order to maximize profitability in short and medium term; and that pushes the price of better quality gold used for investment further.

That being said, we still don’t have a good grasp of what causes the gold price to soar. Maybe its price goes up because of people are buying it, and people are buying it because its price goes up, some sort of self-fulfilling prophecy. And since more people are buying it, it attracts more people to buy it because of the herd mentality (surprise, surprise: bubble!) But if you ask me whether I want to invest in gold, I’d say: nope. I’d rather invest in Microsoft or Google’s stocks and probably hedge it with emerging markets’ bonds. Just saying.

Confession (Kokuhaku): A Review

What would you do if life seems unjust to you? Would you do revenge?

This is the central theme explored in “Confession” (“Kokuhaku”), a 2010 Japanese film directed by Tetsuya Nakashima, which was also Japan’s entry to Oscar’s best foreign film category (which unfortunately didn’t cut it). Confession is barely a mystery/thriller movie, as it gives you away the antagonists near the beginning of film. This is a drama movie, albeit a very dark one.

The story starts with a monologue containing an epiphany about life told by the teacher Yuko Moriguchi (portrayed exceptionally by Takako Matsu). The students were nonchalant at first, but then went shocked after she revealed something disturbing: about how the father of Manami, her daughter, got HIV and how Manami, which at first thought to be died from drowning actually murdered by two of her students. The students, dubbed A/Shuuya Watanabe (played by Yukito Nishii) and B/Naoki Shimamura (played by Kaoru Fujiwara) were the murderers. She then told them her personal revenge, as A and B will likely to escape harsh punishment due to Japanese juvenile law. She injected the HIV-containing blood from her daughter’s father to A and B’s milks, as it would give them time to repent and think about the meaning of life. Naoki then went psychotic from the thought of dying from AIDS. He refused to go to school and take a bath, as he equated smelly hair and body odor to being alive. Shuuya, the smart mastermind, kept on going to school, and all students but Mizuki Kitahara bullied him sadistically.

As the story unfolded, we were told about problems and motivations that gave rise to the murder. Shuuya, who was shunned by her mother, wanted to prove to her (and to the world) that he mattered, that he was talented. He tried his best to show his talent, but the world ignored him, choosing to talk about the sensational murder done by a teenager (you’ll be surprised by who is this murderer) instead of his winning in a national school science award. He then chose murder as his raison d’être, a method to be known by this world. Naoki, on the other hand, went on murdering Minami by throwing her to pool (as the attempted murder using electro-shocking wallet by Shuuya failed) as a gesture to validate himself to Shuuya, whom he thought was his only friend. I won’t give you the rest as it will spoil you the story, but the story goes to be more disturbing from the “confessions” told from the point of view of other characters (including Naoki’s mom.)



Confession is a movie about ambition. It tells us that ambition is dangerous; it makes you stronger, but too much of it will destroy your lives. Confession is also a story about dysfunctional society, be it a family, educational system, or legal system. It tells us that what you do and give to your kids will shape their future, and should you fail as parent, the consequence will be horrible. If you are too demanding of them and ignoring even their smallest achievement, they can be obsessed to you (as what is hinted by the Oedipus complex Shuuya). If you are too protective of them, they can grow up as antisocial (as what is hinted by Naoki.) It also tells us the dire consequences of the failure of teaching respect and morality to kids, leading them to grow up without a sense of discipline, remorse, or even compassion.

“Confession”, in my opinion, seems like a combination of “Dexter” and “Dogtooth” (“Kynodontas”), directed by Lars von Trier. The usage of slow motion montages to dramatize the scene reminiscing me of von Trier’s “Antichrist,” albeit overused. Its characterization is superb, especially the detached teacher played by Takako Matsu who is able to portray a cold-blooded avenger who tries her best to conceal her sadness. The kids’ acting also looks convincingly brutal. The choice of soundtrack (one of it is Radiohead’s “Last Flower”) matches the very bleak tone of the film.

Overall, this is one of the best Japanese films I’ve ever seen, on par with its predecessor in Oscar, “Departure” (“Okuribito”) which won the 2009 Oscar best foreign film award. It’s a shame that it didn’t make into the Oscar best foreign film nominations. Nonetheless, as revenge is best served cold, Tetsuya Nakashima also served “Confession” with a chilling, cruel notion of life and death.

The Economy of Valentine's Day

Just found this on 9GAG. Really funny. Happy Valentine's Day, everyone!